July 24, 2021

16 thoughts on “Brexit – Rolf’s View

  1. Hi Rolf,

    We do live in uncertain times. We are there when the EU is formed, and will likely be there to witness the breakup of it. Financial concerns aside, I think it's quite an honour to live through such times.

    However, I think even this shall pass.

    1. Hi LP,

      Hmmm.. indeed some uncertain times in the world now. Not sure if it's an honor, but maybe more peaceful one is preferred by myself.

      Whether we will witness breakup I am not sure, what I am sure is that Europe is too diverse in cultures to be amalgated successfully.

      Diff states in USA led by a federal govt worked better, bcos of similar background / culture compared to diff countries led by EU and each having their own centuries of Histories and cultures!

  2. "Got caught", "Being prepared" or "Life goes on". Three side of your coin theory.

    1. Need to be prepared and plan in uncertain times like now, otherwise you can be "naked!"

  3. Hi Rolf,
    Great article as usual.
    Brexit will impact EU more than UK as EU is structurally unstable. The real test for EU will come when Britain thrive and prosper after Brexit ie it may trigger referendums for breaking up EU!

    1. Hi Anoymous,

      Thanks. I am largely align with you. EU is not as effective as far as track records is showing.

      The biggest worry for UK is EU will make life difficult for them later! Politics is poison sometimes!

    1. yeah… SMK! hopefully Britain will be (I think they will) sensible enough to identify the good and bad immigrants!

  4. Hi Rolf,

    Now that the markets of the world are throwing tantrums, nobody is sure it's only sentimental and/or theatrical or really justified for the longer term.

    Who really cares(except the British)?
    People in the market are all jostling for the best buying or selling positions as BREXIT seems to be the premonition of the death knell for EU.
    Lately, have you taken some good positions?
    Shalom.

    1. Hi temp,

      It's really difficult to tell if it's just tantrums or permanent decline, just like a man-woman relationships! Haha…

      Frankly like u, I m not so concern about Brexit. Rather I am concern that the world is in deflating mode…

      For stocks, I am standing at the sides, no position! STI is just moving up and down within band of 2700-2800 n it's not really interesting.

      I added position in silver instead n not gold bcos I think silver is reasonably priced!

      Shalom to u as well!

  5. Hi Rolf,
    i applied for FLT IPO – Whole family before BREXIT.
    If BREXIT happens just before FLT IPO, i wonder I dare to apply or not?
    In fact whether FLT underwriters will carry on or postpone like Manulife Reits.
    (Pssts…Underwriters always very careful not to become Undertakers -99.999% POW CHIAT ONE)

    Of course the reasons is not the same but it's always the Sentiments of the Markets come first for all "BIG SHARKs"
    Ha! Ha!

    1. Hi temperament,

      The big winners are always the one closest to the source! Yes indeed, the big sharks! Maybe Brexit has bigger n heavier headlines than it actually is and weighs. Perhaps after sometime, the market will gradually forgets!

      I do not think Brexit posed a structural concern to the world market just like Grexit was over exaggerated too.

      The key concern is massive currency supply causing inflation in financial assets n real estates, n not real output over the past few yrs! Now it hits saturation and economy is deflating where even the low interest rate environment is unable to stimulate anymore! Up to a certain stage of deflating, Central banks will come out with new tools!!! And that is worrying bcos market may well rally one last time causing bigger n worst ever bubble.

      Therefore any hiccup news like "Brexit" will cause temp upheaval.

      FLT – I not sure, but hope u got it right! Cheers 🙂

  6. I feel it's a good thing for Britain.she joins the euro n get those benefits of a common market yet gets to control it's currency.now with the euro going into a deeper slow down the reasons for joining it probably is no longer there.
    On the contrary I think it's a good time they exit now.when times are good why would anyone think of exiting. The migrants issue in euro they are able to avoid it.the sovereign debt issues that affects the euro is also not their problem. I think in the future they should be able to design their country according to how it fits into the world in a most suitable manner.its who is worse off rather than what it stands to gain

    1. Hi Workhard,

      Yes agree with u wholey except for exiting timing.

      Will u exit ur stocks during good times or bad times? The logic is same. Now economy is deflating and UK is not doing any better also.

      So UK have to deal with multiple problems now, new PM new cabinet, economic issues etc.

      If they exit few years ago, then will likely have stablise now their cabinet and in full control to deal only major issue of economy!

      Just my opinion. U may be right, but I prefer to be contrarian doing in opposition what normally the mainstream thinks.

      🙂

  7. Regarding the exit timing, i agree with workhard. Less incentive to exit during the good times and more so during the bad times. As a country exiting a common market, there are political as well as economic aspects. Not the same as an individual exiting the stock market during good times.

    If Britain exited during the good times, much more naysayers would come into the picture when the bad times arrive to say 'i told you so'. Conversely, when they exit during this 'bad time', when the good times are here and Britain do much better than the EU countries, 'i told you so' cannot work. But doesnt mean 'all boats are lifted when the tide is rising' saying wont be thrown at them. Might be more painful now but they will harvest in multiples in return when the next cycle kicks in.

    Different factors at play for both country and individual 😉

    1. Hi HK,

      Good to have an alternative opinion again and it makes me re-think!

      I think you rightfully pointed out about the political aspect. You and Workhard are right about this point which I missed out. I appreciate your different in opinion.
      And also relating to individual and country is different. Just like running business (trump) and country is diff!

      The masses will never feel anything when time is good and so politically Brexit will never even in the referendum proposal let alone the actual vote out of EU.

      Honestly the masses in history of mankind often make decisions base on self interest – although not all the time if there r a great leader around! Perhaps if it's not LKY we will be in still part of Malaysia. The minority will rarely sacrifice for the country/big picture.

      In essence and considering an utopia society assuming that masses cared more the big picture, then it's still more beneficial to exit few years ago considering now the problems will probably pile up going fwd. But reality is always different!

      Perhaps that is why Christians believe that Jesus have to sacrifice painfully to clear all the sins of all the people!

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