July 29, 2021

42 thoughts on “How good (bad?) is Singapore economy now 2016? – Hear from the ground!

    1. Hi Yeh, I am sad to hear that. Hope u can focus on ur health n be happy n ignore whatever happens in the economy! Focus on ur family more! 🙂

    1. Hi EH,

      Yes sort of, but we cannot understand the central bankers who may do whatever they can to boost the economy once more just like in 2009 and 20101.

  1. Hi Rolf

    Like you, i am actually pretty worried on the economy. The growth are stalling and earnings are falling. This despite the aggressive policy central banks have rolled out.

    People seek shelter to high yielding reits so this will one day become overcrowded and formed a bubble.

    Something is evolving and brewing…

  2. Hi Rolf

    Like you, i am actually pretty worried on the economy. The growth are stalling and earnings are falling. This despite the aggressive policy central banks have rolled out.

    People seek shelter to high yielding reits so this will one day become overcrowded and formed a bubble.

    Something is evolving and brewing…

    1. Hi B,

      Do not underestimate what the central bankers can do to stimulate the economy! Hehe.. how many times more they can do is the topic we should be more concern with.

      Seeking shelter in high yield hence Reits. Actually unlike urself and most others, I do not think that is the main reason why people are running towards Reits.

      Instead I have a different opinion. I think that Reit is going to rally in the next 3-4 months! So maybe it's even not a good time to sell Reit if u r trading.

      This is because in a short while time Fed is going to make use of Brexit as a reason NOT to raise rate or may even cut rates citing the poor economic conditions!

    1. Ur comment is a bit strange. I did say "in case" and that is a metaphor. Perhaps it's the obvious reason why u r Anoymous!

      🙂 LoL

      Yes I did sometimes think too much, but at the very least I m not always thinking too much to benefit myself alone nor any selfish act, but instead thinking of how to have "win-win"

      if u think of it fairly n calmly again, maybe then u will not think the same way u just did. I say maybe… hahaha

  3. Rolf, I come to a conclusion, that as long as the earth rotates, there will be years of great plenty and there will be years of famine. In time of past, Joseph was given wisdom to go through it all.

    1. Hi Yaruzi,

      While I am not a Christian, I agree with lots of principles bible thought!

      Joseph ability to decipher the Egyptian king's dream of "skinny cows eating fat cows" is a true godsend. And saving during harvest is true wisdom.

      The 7 years harvest and 7 years famine is about depicted in Jonathan Cahn's book Shemitah.

      Assuming last 7 yrs is harvesting but u already committed / spend ur wealth, so now u realised that it's gg to be famine soon n u r facing retrenchment, my question to u is then "what should u do?"

      🙂

    2. he has many brothers, which one? the one that suggest he be sold as slave? Hahahaa

  4. Quote : "My ex-boss told me during our meeting few weeks ago that Crisis is the best time to Plan. Once you have the plan, then when the time is right, you will be able to execute your plan immediately and way ahead of the rest who did not plan."

    True and 100% agreed!

    This is what last AFC has taught me and probably many of my generation. From AFC onwards; I only spent my last year's bonus till now and no more last year bonus. I will be cautiously watching my cash flow tightly.

    Read? Don't Laugh At Ants When They Looked Far Ahead Of Their Time

    1. Hi CW,

      Hehe… I agree with u n my ex-boss but at the expense of grasshopper! hahaha

      But hor, I think that grasshopper also plan a lot wan lar… just that it never like to put on lips… bcos it is already portrayed as a grasshopper. Then again, action is also impt. so plan and action is like "mouth and teeth!" comes hand in hand.

      People who go thru more ups and downs in life in general either have more wisdom or can craft wisdom more easily! And wisdom is normally a positive consequence from experiences, exposures, failures and pain.

      So u should thank AFC! And I should thank my ex boss! hahahaha

    2. Ha! Ha!
      If a grasshopper says he doesn't plan, he is calling the bluff.
      Only his plan is "Agak, Agak" or based more on fuzzy logic one.
      Like that also can work meh?

      SMOL
      Always like to say , "crash got sound one"
      Then you know work or not lol!
      Try another plan?

    3. Hi temp,

      I do agree with "Crash got sound!" but provided the person cannot be deaf! Hahahaa

      But in general plan is still extremely important then followed by crash got sound!

  5. Quantitative easing only works when you are the only central bank doing it. When the whole world is doing it, it's a race to the bottom.

  6. Race to bottom for the whole world, isn't it scary!

    Do u think it will happen or already happening?

    In any case, if the global economy continues to deflate, US, Jap, EU will all be easing and easing with all in negative interest rate zone! China will then be printing more (by devaluing their currency further to match the USD depreciation.

    And that is the time we should really be very worry!

  7. Hi Rolf,

    Civil service is also closing its doors. But we are sheltered relatively.

    I still have colleagues commenting we are paid peanuts (10k) and people lamenting about bonuses.

    I have a friend doing contract work in my school, he is good and effective, but we have many problems getting him back into system as a perm staff. My guess is there is over supply now, compare this to a decade ago where all are welcomed, retired, career switch, resigned …

    I told my Boss and my friend that since the application approval has been delayed twice in a year, I said if he can find a better offer, just go.

    My boss said, it's tough, market is bad. I said I know. She was very surprised and ask how do I know. I cannot tell her I invest and keep my pulse on the markets Muhahhaha so I said "I keep myself current"

    But surprisingly, I still get high, lucrative offer to give tuition. Too bad I no time …

    Otherwise … I rice bucket

    1. Hi SI,

      Problem with Singaporeans is expectation is too high. Everyone think they are underpaid and overworked.

      Met a friend working in polytechnic as lecturer for Marine Engineering. He said, 3 years ago, they cannot find lecturer. Now one opening, at least 30-40 candidates applied.

      I can help on the tuition part, since I gave tuition for 10 consecutive years, be it in primary, secondary or even junior college!

      Hehe…..

    2. LOL

      "Problem with Singaporeans is expectation is too high. Everyone think they are underpaid and overworked. "

  8. imo we have been in eye of the storm since Lehman. QE just made us walk backwards to stay in the eye. The eye is getting smaller as other sectors start getting hit.
    We have no choice but to walk through the storm, the further we delay the worse the walk.
    BBC just did story 2 weeks bout the ship park outside spore and Rotterdam. The parked ships are back big time and is good barometer of the world economy in the doldrums.
    Good luck to our strawberry generation.
    Rolf the messenger with bad news gets killed so no point saying too much to others.
    Yes we say cause we see it as opportunity but others only see you as nay sayer.
    Fortunes are made and lost in times of crisis.

    1. Hi Terrence,

      Tks for commenting and to drop by. Like you, and many others who commented here, we are most likely the minority out there who belongs to the same camp of thinking.

      Oh yes, parked ships is a good barometer indeed. And in addition, warm or cold stacked offshore vessels n rigs – plenty!

      Hehe… I really like your phrase of me the messenger and getting killed. I have a good laugh about it. Tks 🙂 But frankly, while I m not a stubborn person (contrary to what many may think), I will be really quite strong in my beliefs when my gut, heart, head n everything in my body tells me that I m doing the right thing! So 死而无憾 maybe! lol!!!

      Fortunes cannot be destroyed just like energy, it can only be transferred from one party to another.

      Conservation of Energy
      Conservation of Wealth!

  9. "Worst ever oil crisis in history
    I met many veterans lately. They were in the industry 20, 30 or even 40 years. All lamented that this is the worst ever crisis in their entire career. While the 1980s oil crisis is bad but there isn't as many excess vessels/rigs compared to this one. In my opinion, the main issue is the cheap credit over the past 4-5 years. Since financing is so easy, new building is severely over-supplied and now the biggest bubble ever, much worse than the 2009 crisis.

    Therefore even if oil price is to recover, you need many years to absorb the oversupply in these idling vessels before business prosper again."

    this reminds me 4~5 years ago, when i had a stint in the samsung shipyard in Busan for a new build. it totally blew my mind when i saw 15 ~20 drillships being built. almost all the major rig builders were there, most of them building not only just one. it was a sight to behold, almost akin a factory production line setup, but a gigantic scale. the way it was run, kinda makes keppel shipyard pale in comparision. back then, new drillship charter rates were 400k-500k/day… and everyone was jumping into the bandwagon

    now, thinking back, i lack the foresight to see what this boom of new build would mean down the road. back then, were the golden years, and everyone's judgement was clouded. we all lived in the moment. (we didnt have a Rolf back then. haha) just like the Joseph story, 7years of harvest followed by 7 years of famine.

    we all learn and experience, and hopefully come out wiser from it.
    whatever doesn't kill you, makes you stronger.

    1. Hi FC,

      No worries about lacking of foresight now! You r not the only one. I enjoyed the boom from 2005-2008 where I see so many ships being speculatively built, then the big GFC gave all the industry 1 year of pain and agony before it rose again. Then the next boom in 2010-2014 and crash in 2015 again till now… (just 7-8 yrs)

      I did not see it as early either! Otherwise I will have cash out in 2013 or early 2014. Nope I lost money too!

      Frankly learning from own experience is not as easy even, let alone others or book. Many owners/CEO whom I know and was already hit badly in 2009 after huge speculation, but instead of being conservative in the 2010, they continue to place even bigger bets thinking this time is different! These r people I know who owned companies in hundreds of millions with wealth of life and business experiences.

      They also make the same mistake. Perhaps its human nature being obscured by greed regardless of how rich, exposed, or experience u r!

      Therefore I strongly believe we r still young and should be able to witness another 1-2 "big one" in our life time! Just be patience and never forget this experience. CW8888 mentioned he learnt during AFC, wow… that was almost 2 decades ago!!!

      Joseph had a very tough and terrible life before he is enlightened n blessed! Maybe a strong and blessed human need to somehow always go thru woe before they enjoy the weal.

      Wish all of us here patience n prosperity!

  10. Ya!
    Own experiences are no use one too.
    i seems always to buy and sell too early.
    If not many times richer already.
    Market Timing anyone?

    1. Hi temperament,

      Sama sama here! Buy sell too early is ok if in the right trend curve.

      As long as don't get stuck in a situation where u have to rush towards exit/entry of the small door with 100 of people rushing concurrently!

    2. Alamak!

      i just did it purposely because i KK lol.

      i(speculate) on the 1st day of Brexit.
      If i do nothing, then i am 5 to 6 k richer now lol.
      Now only 1 to 2 K.
      Q.
      Why did i buy for fundamentals suddenly change to market sentimental speculations?
      i think i follow the markets too closely lol.
      Believe it or not!
      i do it everyday since 1987/88.

    3. Haha… wow wow 1987/88 is a long time! Many of the bloggers or readers were not bornt! I am only a kid also.

      Nod nod, follow market too closely is no good! Then hands will get itchy if u do nothing.

  11. nice post.

    please stay positive and optimistic. one thing we can definitely influence and change is ourselves.

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