July 30, 2021

21 thoughts on ““Street Smarts – Jim Rogers” (Part 2) Investment Advice

  1. Hi Rolf

    I can totally relate to your experience as I was also high on the list for Spools until online betting take over.

    Must say that I was lucky to be able to break away from that jinx as those can be really addictive and damaging. At least for stock investment, we do justify the reason for buying it than buying blindly.

    1. Hi B,

      You also like thrill of betting? We were all young once! 🙂

      But glad that you managed to break away from it.

      Yeah, invest in stocks is different. More to it than just hitting buy or sell.

      "Investing without research is like playing stud poker and never looking at the cards." – Peter Lynch

  2. Hi Rolf!

    I remembered few years ago I was introduced to online betting, I bet on soccer games and won some cash with some formulas.. e.g if the match is 0 – 0 on first half, buy Total goal more than 0.75. usually win, it's quite hard to see matches go total goal 0 according to the statistics.

    But GREED took over, i placed more and more money into every single bet. in the beginning putting the minimum bet of $40 dollars is already heart pumping for me but as time goes putting $200 or $400 became very fluent and natural for my finger to key in. Theres always a winning formula with calculated risk in gambling but the point is we always lose the devil inside us.

    not to mention the loss sleeping time when i set alarm clock to check live score to see whether i win or not.

    dun bet is best.

    jfree

    1. Hi Jfree,

      Seems like we were all once gamblers.

      Your formula is definitely better than ours. 🙂

      For football bets it's luck eventually. People say "the ball is round!" Unless "kelong".

      Have to agree that it's better not to bet.

  3. Hi Rolf

    The style of betting you adopted is what they call a Martingale strategy. It has intrigued me over the years since I first read about it and I've always fantasized about testing it out in a casino. But it requires you to have exceptionally deep pockets in order for it to work (the more money one has, the more consecutive losses one will be able to stomach). But once one runs out of money, it's goodbye..

    1. Hi RetailTrader,

      Thanks for informing about the Martingale. I learn something new again via blogging.

      So did you try it over at Casino???

      I googled it…. and yes… I was bankrupt then!

      "The gambler usually wins a small net reward, thus appearing to have a sound strategy. However, the gambler's expected value does indeed remain zero (or less than zero) because the small probability that he will suffer a catastrophic loss exactly balances with his expected gain. (In a casino, the expected value is negative, due to the house's edge.)The likelihood of catastrophic loss may not even be very small. The bet size rises exponentially. This, combined with the fact that strings of consecutive losses actually occur more often than common intuition suggests, can bankrupt a gambler quickly."

    2. Haha I never tried at casino but I heard some casinos impose minimum and maximum bet. So let's say the minimum bet is $50 and maximum is $10k. That would mean you can only bet like 50, 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200, 6400 before you are forced to stop. That would mean if you play a game that gives you 50% odds to win (e.g. guess big or small number) and you lose 8 times in a row, you are out with a $6.4k loss. And the odds of that happening are not that low, i.e. 0.5 to the power of 8 = 0.390625%. You may win money on most days but one day that 0.390625% is going to hit you and can potentially wipe out all the winnings you had made before that.

    3. Haha… the casino is always the overall winner.
      For gamblers, you just need one bullet on the head to kill you.

    4. I have also been interested in the Martingale strategy for a long time. The first time I read it in the article about different roulette strategies https://casinority.com/15-winning-roulette-strategies/ and it was a discovery for me. I haven't tried to use it yet, and I'm not sure I will do it in future, but it was quite interesting for me to read different opinions about this stratagy.

  4. Rolf,

    1) Resist diversification – Must highlight as a poke 😉

    2) What Happen in a Bull Market – I see quite a lot of kids around 😉

    Jim Rogers has an interesting life!

    It shows that coming from humble backwater background is not a handicap.

    Having a liberal arts education is a plus!

    Quitting at late 30s does not mean there's nothing to do next!

    And it perfectly OK to change your mind and start having kids in our 60s!!!

    Now that's cool!

    1. Hi SMOL,

      Haha actually I agree with the resistance to diversification, but that is only for people of those calibre.

      For normal investor like me, who are equipped with mediocre skills, and neither have the balls nor time, I still choose to diversify!

      We were once kids! Humble background can sometimes be a stimulus of being street smarts.

      I have a client who is in his 60s and he married a 30 year old air stewardess wife he knew while on the plane. They have a toddler too.

      "Better late than Never!"

  5. Hi Rolf,

    Every inspiring quotes and post there you have. Helps reinforce my thoughts about life and investing.

    Thanks!

    1. Hi Secretinvestors,

      Thanks for the compliments. I somehow felt "NATO" (learnt from Ah Boys to Men) lately – No Action Talk Only.

      🙂

  6. Hi Rolf,

    Previous time I also contributed to the SG pools towards S League grass planting. May write a post about my folly. Haha.

    Cheers,
    Farmer.

    1. Hi PIF,

      Haha. Our contribution is both good for SG Pools and S-League. Without the betting, maybe S-League's audience will drop greatly.

      The temporary folly in the past is the backbone of the formidable now.

      Await your post.

  7. It’s a good thing that students compare themselves with the others in essay on line. One should compare his positive points with the positive of others not with the negative of others. Comparison should be positive and neutral to move forward.

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