July 31, 2021

25 thoughts on “Rolf’s Stock Portfolio – Why more than 50 percent is in Tech Stocks?

  1. Yeah, think many younger investors have figured out to invest in local reits for income & US tech for capital gains. Maybe 50:50. Those more conservative can have 75% in local blue chip reits.

    1. Agree, that invest in REIT (div) and Tech (capital) is a good way. Sounds very easy, and it is. But younger investors who lack experiences be it in investment or life, usually are more easily to be emotionally affected, and tend to make more poorer decisions at the wrong time at the wrong place, as compared to the older and wiser ones. Being younger also mean your Capital to invest is lesser, which is hard to make real good returns, unless your Dad and Mom help you out.

      I have slight opinion differences investing in 75% of local blue chips. This pandemic has truly expose the shortcoming of local blue chips or STI. Many local blue chips not just lack its current shine, but the business fundamentals to adapt to the futuristic world is also not there. If you look at the stock mix of STI it is mostly in Real Estate, 3 banks and Jardine. Refer to my earlier article for more explanation.


    2. I'm referring to "blue chip reits", not blue chips or STI.

      E.g. Those Mapletree, Keppel DC, Capitaland, Ascendas, even Frasers for HDB heartland malls.

      The strong trends currently are data centres, network infrastructure, logistics, and *some* industrials.

      There are also plenty of riskier Reits, with weaker balance sheets or property assets or types of businesses. They may be value plays that can give bigger returns if things turn out well. But it's kinda oxymoronic to invest in Reits for such strategy — you'd want to invest in the underlying companies / tenants for such strategy instead. As usual, risk management with position sizing.

    3. Hi, my bad. Miss out the word "Reit". You are absolutely right. Blue chip Reit seems like SG main triumph card n the dividends is good.

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  2. Hey Bro, very solid post. I shall share this post of yours on my twitter account.

    1. Hi SI, why you delete the post. I see nothing wrong with the original one. Haha. Yeah our friend UN is a crypto guru, and now flowing in his blood is not fluid but "digital" 🙂

    2. Hi hi Rolf, I know u could see it.

      Someone told me it might have unintentional impact of glorifying something and maybe cause "sheeps" to be slaughtered

    1. Hi FI35,

      Tks for dropping by. Saw ur Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft giving fantastic returns. These are 3 Companies I love most. Read your website https://thefi35.com/2020/05/27/portfolio-update-may-2020-and-how-i-manage-my-1-4-mil-leveraged-portfolio/, which you said as follows. I share the same sentiment:

      “I’m not likely to sell anything anymore. I’ll cash in when my kids goes to university and to top-up my CPF retirement sum. Hence, I realise I don’t really care whether it goes up or down. It doesn’t matter as my sell date is like 20 years later. So I don’t feel ecstatic when it goes up or panicked when it goes down.”

  3. Hi, by entering into the tech market now which is near ATH. Don't you think it's a little risky?
    So you don't think the second crash will be coming anymore per your post in March 2020?

    1. Hi, I will write another post explaining if it is risky to invest in Tech at ATH prices with reasoning and analysis?

      I wasn’t involve in Tech stocks prior to Covid. In March, I was thinking that Covid will be one of the worst crisis and many companies or even countries will collapse thereafter. I still think the same today.

      Then I saw the surge of Tech Stocks and their disregard of the crisis. I started to take notice, and with the conviction I already previously have from friends and other news, I am convinced about Tech Stocks’ future.

      Therefore, the only difference is the collapse is definitely not Tech Giants but smaller and more old fashioned companies.

      After March, I also wrote below articles stating that we should continue to invest and how Large cap US stocks are unstoppable even if there is a second-wave.

      If I have excess 100K now, how should I invest over the next one year?

      Wall Street Vs Main Street – The Unstoppable US Large Cap Stocks Supported by Fed’s Dovish Promise

  4. I hope you make money from your tech investments. Even if you don't, no need to feel too bad for the reasons below.

    If I were to lose money investing in a bubble, I will prefer to invest in a tech bubble. Tremendous social/economic benefits will emerge even when a tech bubble bursts.

    The dot-com/telecoms bubble in the late 1990s and early 2000s gave us the internet, fibre-optics, skilled engineers. The over-capacity built up by the tech bubble planted the seeds for later wealth creation/productivity which is being reaped by the U.S today. Another good example a few hundred years ago was the railway bubble which created enormous wealth later for Great Britain and U.S.

    Maybe 100 years later, historians will look back and say that crypto-currency bubble laid the foundation for blockchain technology which delivered huge productivity gains in banking, healthcare, legal sector etc

    While over-capacity in tech sectors will lead to pain to retrenched engineers, loser investors, some social/economic good will come out of this pain to society at large.

    Can we say the same thing about real estate bubbles or over-speculation in innovative financial structured products which tend to benefit mainly the financial innovators at the expense of clients?

    Warning: Although I'm fan of tech, I hope you don't get too encouraged into tech investing by my comment. I personally will avoid investing in tech if the bubble is too crazy and price is over-extended. I'm an investor, not a saint. I'm not going to invest in something to benefit others at my own expense.

    1. Hi Hyom,

      Thanks for the fantastic insight and wisdom. Everything happens for a reason. It is cause and effect.

      No worries for me, as I halted my further foray for now, unless a correction. If you look at my portfolio, my tech is split between US and China tech giants.

      If you look at US tech giants, the most overblown is Tesla stock, which I don’t owned. My bet is mainly Amazon, Apple, Google and possible Microsoft later. Netflix is a bit high now too, but there is a 7% correction last week.

      In fact, if you look at the Chinese Tech, they are definitely not in the Bubble Zone. Baidu in fact is below its 5 year average. Alibaba and JD only just listed in HK and prices are still very close to IPO prices.

  5. Hi Rolf,

    Your post is like a wake-up call.

    Will Covid revolutionize tech's role in our daily lives? I think it has already, slowly but surely.

    I think some reasons why Singaporean investors don't hype much on tech stocks might be
    1) hassle of currency exchange and needing to set up a custodian account to trade them (and more fees involved)
    2) uncertainty towards individual tech stocks (as income stocks still rule over stocks with potential capital gain but high beta) – Tesla being one of them

    If there should be another crash, likely I will scoop tech ETF.

    Hyom, *like* your comment!

    1. Hi Rainbow gal, thanks for the comments. I just read newspaper today, that it took years to convince people about the importance of digital in Singapore, but because of Covid now, it took only months to implement now in Singapore.

      Yes, you are right about the currency exchange. But actually it is also wise to have some USD instead of SGD. In times of crisis, USD will soar as it is a "safe haven" so as to speak in the society of investment.

      Guess both income and capital gains are important. E.g. over a course of 20 yrs, you may have compounded a lot of dividends, which is exceptionally good, but if your stock have minimum capital gain or even decline, then it is not as good.

      As I mentioned, if you look at the world's largest capital gain basket of stocks in the last 15 yrs, it is w/o a shadow of doubt – Tech stocks!

      Hope (or Hope not) there is another crash.

      Do you think if there is another Covid Crash, Tech stocks will crash more than 10%? I mean certain Tech stocks like Amazon, Google, Apple, Alibaba, Tencents etc?

      Unless there is a currency crisis in the near term, I doubt the 2nd wave of covid will have much impact to the Tech stocks I mentioned earlier, as Tech stocks are meant to soar even more because of Covid situation.

      Like you, I really love that Hyom always write beautifully with so much wisdom!

  6. I don’t see any good listing in sgx vs hk stock exchange for quite a while already. I do agree there is a long runway for chinese tech stocks (The likes of pinduoduo, alibaba, tencent), there are dual listing in us market but I prefer hk market due to timezone – easier to monitor. For fixed income play, local reit good ones are overbought and I think it’s lost opportunity cost locked in these vs growth stocks. Maybe when older will look into divesting more into fixed income, but now maybe not.

    1. Hi Sg Lady Road to FI,

      Yes. Me too, HK market is better in terms of time zone! Yeah good point about lost opportunity.

      Mixture of fixed income and growth is good. Yeah more older people prefer fix income..

      Bcos sometimes growth stocks take time!

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  9. Hi Rolf,

    Good to see you are mostly in Tech. Your port shld be doing well now.
    Sorry to comment so late but I guess it is still not too late for discussion.

    I also have Cisco, CVS , Alibaba and JD.
    My only concern is only on Cisco due to its forecasted flat/negative growth. However, I know Cisco's business is mostly cyclical and it is not their first time. As it appears, the current period is their down cycle. Another worry is it becoming the next IBM tho I feel it is unlikely. What are your thoughts about holding Cisco?
    (Since other tech stocks are soaring while Cisco has been range trading)


    1. Hi Frowns88, thanks for dropping by.
      It is better late than never.

      The portfolio was listed 1.5 months ago. I already sold my CVS, and CISCO is one of my smallest holdings of tech stock, since I added more lots in other tech stocks.

      Yes, CISCO is cyclical. And it is one category of stock I buy for unloved now, but potentially jump when economy recovers. Market valuation is pretty low now and eventually due to the increasing use of digital market, network gears will definitely still needed.

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