the Hazy outlook ahead, I am currently sitting with approx. 75%
cash and 25% equity invested. The cash here is all my cash which includes rainy day
cash expenses, while the investment excludes property, CPF, other insurance
saving plans etc.
overall I am glad that I break-even in REALISED TRADES this year including dividends
received so far! Having said that, I suffered PAPER LOSS OF 7-8% in my overall
hoarding of large amount of cash does not make any sense. If you are already
well-prepared for a crisis with all your rainy day expenses locked up,
please go ahead to commit your balance resources in a sustainable manner over long
term. Nonetheless do remember to at least have some cash to take advantage of unexpected plunge
in the market. Staying 100% invested without diversification and rainy day expenses now is going to be
kind of risky.
what you are going to read as follows is for someone “Kiasi” (scare to die) like
me, and still struggling to attain the “so-called” long term investor syndrome.
Also, for someone like me, who face larger expenses coming from more mouths to
feed and for someone like me who fear the losing of jobs for prolong period of time?
me wrong. I vouch that by no means I am proselytize how pitiful I
am having coming from a background with so many mouths to feed. I need no empathy for I know myself better than anyone else in this world – That I am very sure!
market for decades to be able to stomach the losses and gains “emotionlessly”, I am not ready to classify myself as a 100% long term investor! Yet, a good way to propel my experiences, is to read as much as I could. The accelerated knowledge can then replace what I
lack in decades of experiences in the market.
we cannot control
control the haze? The haze is something we cannot control. Not even our
government! As PM put it during the
recent National Rally 2015 :
recently on the 9th of August, one Indonesian newspaper published an overview
of the relationship between them and us. And they quoted a senior Indonesian
politician what he said about the haze. He said, “I
would only consider apologising for the haze if Singapore and Malaysia are
thankful for the oxygen from Indonesian forests for 11 months each
and please know your place in the world. Do not get uppity. This may not
reflect the Indonesian Government’s view, but we have to take note of it. It is
a deep seated mindset – that a little red dot red dot should know its place in
the world – and this mindset will not disappear for a long time.”
if I am to view the stock market today, the short term outlook ahead is equally “Hazy”
and it seems that even IMF, US Fed, ECB or any governments are already running out of tools to fix the situation if it worsens.
just too many uncertainties at the moment. China is slowing, emerging markets confronting recession, dubious interest rate hike, volatility in oil and commodity prices etc.
somewhere, the market will prefer to have a sustain bull or a bear for ease of
planning, rather to have market volatility bleeding into the real
economy without you knowing or getting ready.
Monday on 24 Aug this year, which seen close to 20% wipeout of market cap in a
single day, some investors are streaming “Leh Long, Leh Long” , Time to be
greedy? I am cautious instead!
also known as the Shiller Ratio or the P/E 10 ratio was developed by Dr.
Robert Shiller (who won the Nobel Prize for his work on 10/14/2013) and Dr.
John Campbell in a paper written in 1988 and can be traced to
the principles of Graham. This Price earnings ratio is
also based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.
ratio for the S&P 500.
Sep 11, current Shiller PE Ratio is 24.86. It is
not the most expensive, but it is also by no means cheap. In fact S&P 500 is on the high side now! Please also note that
the US stocks already has a good run of 6 years or more now since the GFC. Is the bull run in US going to continue indefinitely?
STI is valued at PE ratio of ~12.99. Meanwhile, STI’s average PE ratio over the 37-year
period stretching from 1973 to 2010 is 16.9. STI’s floor is during GFC with
PE ratio of just 6, while ceiling is in 1973 when PE ratio hits 35.
crazily expensive but not dirt cheap too!
certainty at least for Singaporeans is that PAP won again to provide continuity!
And it is not just a victory, but a really
convincing one at 69.86%. I “sort of” gathered that sentiments reflected in my
last post. Refer here.
finished reading the book “The Harbinger” by author/pastor John Cahn. I am not
a Christian and this book was a birthday gift from my former boss who is a
staunch Christian. To get an idea about the 9 Harbingers, refer to a 2012
interview on Glenn Beck TV here.
The ancient mystery, according to Cahn,
explains everything from the September 11 attacks to the financial collapse of
2008 and beyond. The author posits that God is sending the U.S. a “prophetic
message” of what is yet to come, just as he did once in ancient Israel. Thus,
according to the book, these same “Nine Harbingers” are now manifesting
themselves here on U.S. soil.
today or tomorrow when stock markets are concern. Meanwhile, please please please do not let your imagination run wild! The main point for me in the 9 Harbinger is not market crash.
what you can control
maybe I should pray more often for rain or wind to blow in other direction.
I am unable to foretell which direction the stock market will trend in the
short term. But what I am going to do now, in view of the current volatility, is to
sit on more cash. This is at least something I can control and can do now, to prepare
for the worst, if it really turn worse. If not worse, I am also happy and probably can wait till the market is less volatile. How long is the wait? I am not sure!
comfortable to diversify my allocation to put more resources into cash. Ignore the percentage of
cash/equity 70-30, 40-60, 50-50, 40-60 etc. It all depends on each individual. Do
not get mistaken with figures! This
is because you are not me, and you do not really know how much is my expenses
or if I may have other investments, and how much they cost for me – property, other life-saving plans, CPF etc.
worrying thing about doing a book review is that readers will start thinking that I am 100% in favor of the author of the book. The objective of my book review is for the sake of sharing. To be honest its primary objective is not even meant for public readers! Sorry guys, I love your comments flowing in…! In the main, it was meant to be a platform, so that I can discuss with my kids in a easier and portable manner.
before and after reading the book, I am absolutely in favor that positive
thinking does not create positive events happening in our life! It is the
action that is needed. It is pretty clear for me.
being positive can put me in the right frame of mind, so that my actions can be
more constructive when I experiences difficult times in my life. That applies to me. If it is not working for you, I sincerely respect you.
truly know me in real life, knows that I never complain about my humble past, and hate
to brag about any achievements (if any few ones) as well. Ok…I love to share and that invites unnecessary perceptions/comments. But this is something I can do little about.