August 5, 2021

14 thoughts on “My Portfolio – Dragged by Gloomy Outlook! What Should I Do?

  1. Hi Rolf

    Keep focusing on the business. Ive tried harder to do that now.

    Macroeconomic factors are something we cannot control.

    1. Hi B,

      Yes, focus on the business and mind our own business. LOL 🙂
      Do not let the noise drown us!

      Rolf

  2. Rolf,

    You're the insider in the O&G industry – you "should" know more than us 😉

    As for me outside the industry, and as more of a top down macro guy, I am watching Brent, WTI, and natural gas futures as my indicators 😉

    2 different styles. One macro top down, one micro bottom up 😉

    Same same but different?

    Or 2 sides of the same coin?

    LOL!

    1. Hi SMOL,

      You philosophy always so chim and let me think so much!

      "Stand byside people more clear (chinese please)" than insider sometimes!

      Top down approach is clear. Stay away!

      If you know more than others and can control well, then bottom up approach. But do not be drunk after the bottoms up!

      Rolf

  3. Hi Rolf,

    I agree with you regarding the long term demand for oil and gas is sound.

    Opportune time to accumulate! Managed to buy some Sembmarine during the recent sell off. Keppel also looking attractive.

    Saw SMOL's post that you are in the oil and gas industry. Can seek your thoughts on Otto Marine?

    Best regards,
    Naro

    1. Hi F4U&M,

      Thanks for the maiden comments. I use to be more active insider in O&G. Now I am just as close as a outsider.

      SM seems a safe bet now considering its price, not so highly in debt and strong backlog. Keppel is always strong but 1 lot is > 10k.

      Otto Marine has been suffering for many years! I am still waiting for the turnaround. You need to check if they managed to charter out their last VS490 AHTS, which caused their misery for the past years from the Mosvold shipping.

      I do not like their big batam yard overhead, without any substantial shipbuilding order. Their vessel chartering is focused locally and Australia. Aussie is not doing well lately, hopefully not affected. But current price seems attractive and if there is a turnaround, Otto will be Turbo Motor in terms of share price.

      End of the day…your take!

      Rolf

  4. ur analysis is good. vallianz have been falling and broke below 10cts. tough time ahead i feel.

    i am vested. whats ur view?

    1. Hi Anonymous,

      Vallianz is a high volume stocks that traders enjoy buy in/out. Feels like a prostitute stock! Haha LOL

      It gives you heart attacks at times. Rising to 0.2 at one point from 0.05 then free falling now.

      Maybe it's good to ask ourselves why are we vested in the first place. Because price rise is very fast and everyone says good times ahead? Now it is tough time?

      Is earnings perceive to drop? Or the crowd has lost interest in the pretty woman of last Christmas?

      I had been holding this stock for close to 4 years. At one time, I lost as much as more than 50% paper after the rights! Sleep peacefully still! During the mild euphoria, I sell/gain some to re-balance my portfolio.

      I am still having Val as one of my major port – maybe no choice! "Dice please. Buy or Sell? I just ignore!

      Please read my label on Vallianz. Tks.

      Rolf

  5. Hi Rolf,

    Thank you for your insights. Really useful for an outsider, not even an insider before!!! 🙂

    I would research further into the issues/concerns that you highlighted. I took the opportunity to accumulate some Otto Marine counter today. 🙂

    Cheers,
    Naro

    1. Hi Naro,

      No problem. To be honest, I really like Otto Marine. They are one of my biggest clients before the GFC with a good boss and many good people in the company, timely payment, and many projects etc

      Unfortunately they were caught by one bad decision taking on the contracts for the 4 big AHTS from Mosvold Shipping. These vessels are on speculation without oil company contracts. Mosvold withdrawn the bank guarantees and cancel the contracts after GFC. Otto had to take over these vessels. It is a wound they are still licking now!

      If you need more info on Otto, do email me. I welcome if you can also share your analysis too! 2 heads are better than 1.

      Thanks, Rolf.

    2. Hi Rolf,

      Reason why I quite like Otto Marine is that their "shipping" segment provide about 50% of its revenue. From the AR, it refers to chartering of support vessels. I feel that it takes the load off securing and delivering new builts which are lumpy and one-off and more cyclical.

      Also, I think the current price has factored in the losses of FY11 and FY12.

      That's my layman's analysis.

      Cheers,
      Naro

  6. Hi F4U&M,

    To be honest, I never follow Otto Marine "OM" closely recently neither is an analysis done. But you may be just right? If I ever go into OM, lets keep sharing. By the way, what is your email?
    Mine is rolfsuey@gmail.com.

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