August 2, 2021

12 thoughts on “Crisis and retrenchment – What if it is me? (Part 2)

  1. Hi Rolf,

    You are so full of…plans! I also had a list of options available for me when shit hits the fan. Not all are to find options for earning income, some are projects to fill myself with opportunities when the downturn stops, some are projects to fill my time with memories etc.

    I think the worst thing one can do is to feel self-pity and see oneself as a victim. That, I would not do.

    1. Hi LP,

      The problem with self-pity is no one will pity you except for your pitiful parents. Maybe ur wife also will not pity u!

      Good to hear ur options for fulfillment and opportunities. It sounds perfect.

      No lar, while I usually plan and strategize (maybe not as much as u think), my life has more actions relative to plans.
      My wife and friends always say I action pack leh, cannot wait, must fast fast do!

      That is why I am learning to manage my temperament and stock market investing is perfect for me in this sense.

      I reckon as I aged, actions do give more and more to increased quality thinking!

  2. Rolf,

    I have your six.

    LP, these are not "plans"; these are "options".

    Plans are to secure something you have yet to achieve.

    Options in Rolf's case are already SECURED offers just waiting for Rolf's final decision.

    You think why Rolf is taking it easy and not rushing into the next available job if retrenched?

    1. Hi Jared,

      You stolen my six packs?

      Hmm.. yes "options" not equal to "plans"!
      But option also have expiry dates of u do not exercise on time!

      Anyway, if we still need to work for money then options are still more limited! I confess that I still need money now! No shame, bcos I do not want to be over frugal and I want to at least pay my kids education, maybe even overseas education.

      Making the "right or wrong decisions" in life can sometimes change our entire life.

      I always feel that while wide knowledge, good understanding and plans are important, decision making (or action) is something that is even more important that differentiates! Even 1% action a day to improve ourselves is good!

  3. Interesting blog. Thanks for the articles. I was there before. No job. Desperate. I'm now doing much better than ever. Life is a journey. Enjoy the process.

    1. Hi Anonymous,

      Yes indeed life is a journey and it can be a roller coaster ride, which we just have to ride it sometimes. At least after the ride, u can cooly look back and say I rode it courageously without regrets!

      Good to hear that you are doing better than ever. Best of future ahead to you!

  4. The mystery of all is with all these bad economy news
    why people in the the market still flolicking happily in a swimming pool?
    They should be heading south at least slowly, isn't it?
    i guess buying "euphoria" have not been seen in a bull market yet.
    The lemmings have yet to appear.
    Then everybody will madly rush for the exit.
    Then you know, a black swan has appears.
    When?

    1. Hi temperament,

      Historically it should be euphoria before crash. I agree with you!

      Some people say when the USA is going raise interest rate, then economy is going to slow rapidly, then the Fed will panic and there will be QE4. The stock market will rally again and that will be the last time it rally, before finally too much $ and inflation and market crash!

      So we still can wait for the next rally before we sell everything???

      Alternatively Trump wins the election and started out on many unique and short term effective policy (long term detrimental) that US citizens think it's good, STOCKS rally temporary before US international relationships strained and tension lead to stock crash!

      Just imaginations!

      For now, it does not seem that economy is heading steep downturn because globally there are still morphine injections (monetary policy) to curb the pain.

  5. hi Rolf, been following your blog for a while but dont think i've commented before. we are both about the same age, engrg-trained, likely started working around the same time (SARS!), both fathers to young kids and work in the same industry (upstream o&g -in fact i suspect I know where you work!). Its tough times indeed – my sales role has mostly morphed into running after people for money now =P
    I love the options you've put together – I'm also spending more time at home when i can now, and I've built up an emergency fund to last 12 months without income, because this downturn could be as bad as the 1980s. All the best to the both of us.

    1. Hi Serendib,

      Thanks for following my blog and the compliments.

      Good to find someone of similar generation, background and interests here.

      Yeah…very tough times indeed! Many "old bird" already commented that it is worst than the 80s one.

      Chasing after people for money is tiring. Being chased after also sian….
      I always remind myself : Never offend anyone in the market and in fact use this chasing of money opportunity to strengthen on the relationship if you believe your client will still be around after the crisis!
      I did that during 2009 GFC and so far it turns out well.

      The most refreshing thing to hear is that you are all prepared to weather the crisis. May we survive this crisis and turn out stronger and better later.

      Oh ya, in case we ever meet in the industry (i.e. if we still survive) since you think you know me, just give me an headsup!
      I prefer to be anonymous here, but in real life I am ok to say hi and get to know.

    2. Hi Rolf
      You have excellent options/plans. Especially your ‘6 pack’ plans. Spending time excising/pumping iron/hitting the punching bag trigger the flow of endorphin through the body. There is a possibility of having more kids after you attain your 6 pack!!

      It is similar in the resource industry. Morale is super low. There is a structural change taking place as commodity prices have stayed low for a few years. Redundancies/retrenchment has been rampant in the industry. I've been prepping for industry downturn for a few years. I should be able to survive for quite some time without work if I kanna retrenchment.

      On the other hand, precious metal prices went up this year. I am not sure what to make of it. Gut feeling tells me it is only temporary. But hey, I am no economist. Just sit back and enjoy the ride! Hopefully, everybody follow gold bugs and buy more gold!!

      By the way, do you reckon gold prices will continue to shoot all the way up?

    3. Hi Chewyc,

      Tks for the compliment. Not excellent lar… just relevant to me. haha… 6 packs = more kids, good idea! Only thing bad is no income.

      While I m sorry to hear the misfortune in the resource sector, I m happy to hear you can survive for a long time if the unfortunate happen.

      Anyway, I wrote before that crisis is the best time to learn.

      https://rolfsuey.com/2016/02/crisis-we-should-be-happy-because-it-is.html?m=1

      If we can survive well during terrible times, I m sure we ll do extreme well during the good times!

      For Gold, my understanding is that pricing is always driven by sentiments in the short term. Gold price went up due to fear of economic crisis esp during the start of the year. Silver also went up but not as much.

      However in the long term, or in the history of mankind since 5000 years ago, gold n silver always manage to store its purchasing power up till today. In contrast, Fiat currency (not back by anything) just repeats itself over and over again with hundreds of examples of collapse to zero value. Zimbabwe recent times, Germany mark 1920s, China in 1940s etc

      So as long as people spend more than they produce (deficit spending) and increase it more and more (print more n more also), eventually it will lead to hyperinflation and fiat currency collapse. Question is when? 10, 20, 50 yrs?

      I do not know about gold prices shooting up in the short term future, but acc. to Ray Dalio it's always good to keep 5-10% portfolio in gold. Just in case our Fiat currency collapse.

      Jim Rogers forsee that Fed will raise rates n gold will sink to below $1000/oz n usd will surge and stocks will rally. That will be the last time and then the entire global system will collapse.

      Those are just views. I think it's impt to keep some gold in case the expected happen. Pricing of 10-20% difference to me not so critical bcos if $ collapse, gold n silver may surge more than ten times as history suggest!

      Just my humble views and hope it helps.

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