Since the
start of the year, it has been like a roller coaster ride for STI Index. See
above diagram. It was 2883 points from start of year 2016, then the panicky
slide to trough at 2532 points (late Jan to Mid Feb) before the recent raging rally
above 2900 points.
start of the year, it has been like a roller coaster ride for STI Index. See
above diagram. It was 2883 points from start of year 2016, then the panicky
slide to trough at 2532 points (late Jan to Mid Feb) before the recent raging rally
above 2900 points.
In a
recent interview of Bloomberg with Ray Dalio, he mentioned that it is unlikely
that the world economy will go into a recession like what we encountered in
2008-09, but it is likely that the market will be volatile up and down in a low
growth global environment for some time.
recent interview of Bloomberg with Ray Dalio, he mentioned that it is unlikely
that the world economy will go into a recession like what we encountered in
2008-09, but it is likely that the market will be volatile up and down in a low
growth global environment for some time.
Busy in work and quiet in stocks
While I am
aware of the recent rally, I have hardly any time to pay too much attention on
it. In other words, no action in my stock trades. It has been an extremely busy
last month for me with travels to Australia, Europe and then this week with
overseas visitors followed by upcoming Malaysia trip.
aware of the recent rally, I have hardly any time to pay too much attention on
it. In other words, no action in my stock trades. It has been an extremely busy
last month for me with travels to Australia, Europe and then this week with
overseas visitors followed by upcoming Malaysia trip.
A big
piece of news for me in work is my boss for only the past year, whom I had
excellent relationship with, has tendered resignation. I was hence tasked with more
responsibility on my shoulder by the higher management.
piece of news for me in work is my boss for only the past year, whom I had
excellent relationship with, has tendered resignation. I was hence tasked with more
responsibility on my shoulder by the higher management.
Wait a
minute… Nope, this is neither a promotion nor a pay rise! Instead, just added
responsibility and yet with higher expectation to do well.
minute… Nope, this is neither a promotion nor a pay rise! Instead, just added
responsibility and yet with higher expectation to do well.
Definitely
not good news for me!
not good news for me!
Moreover,
I will now need to accustom to a new superior, someone who I does not know well
at all. Apparently my current new boss is already the fifth one in the last 3
years for me. Crazy right?
I will now need to accustom to a new superior, someone who I does not know well
at all. Apparently my current new boss is already the fifth one in the last 3
years for me. Crazy right?
This
explains why I am pretty quiet in the blogosphere and stock market lately and
expects somewhat the same going forward.
explains why I am pretty quiet in the blogosphere and stock market lately and
expects somewhat the same going forward.
Get the mentality right
Meanwhile,
in the depressed oil and gas environment which already see many people being
shown the door, anything can happen to me as well.
in the depressed oil and gas environment which already see many people being
shown the door, anything can happen to me as well.
No iron
rice bowl!
rice bowl!
I am
always mentally prepared so that if the big axe is waved down on me, I will
still survive the chop both financially and mentally! Which is why I am being
very prudent in my expenses and stock-cash position since last year. Read:
always mentally prepared so that if the big axe is waved down on me, I will
still survive the chop both financially and mentally! Which is why I am being
very prudent in my expenses and stock-cash position since last year. Read:
Sell into the rally
In fact it
is not a bad thing to be dormant especially in “purchasing” new shares during
this STI rally. More so, I reckon that now is a good time to sell the rally for
stocks that is mainly meant for trading purposes! For me, I had sold quite
early when STI surpassed 2800 points in early March. Refer to my earlier post here.
is not a bad thing to be dormant especially in “purchasing” new shares during
this STI rally. More so, I reckon that now is a good time to sell the rally for
stocks that is mainly meant for trading purposes! For me, I had sold quite
early when STI surpassed 2800 points in early March. Refer to my earlier post here.
Did I sell
too early? Yes I did!
too early? Yes I did!
Did I
regret it? No, I didn’t.
regret it? No, I didn’t.
This is because
you simply cannot time the market. Moreover, I will be too busy always not in
office to properly execute the sale of shares. This is also an issue that if
you are busy in work, you should not be doing too much trading, and focus in
long term investing!
you simply cannot time the market. Moreover, I will be too busy always not in
office to properly execute the sale of shares. This is also an issue that if
you are busy in work, you should not be doing too much trading, and focus in
long term investing!
What should I do now?
For now, I
will be patient to wait for the next downtrend to pick up more shares, if there are any!
will be patient to wait for the next downtrend to pick up more shares, if there are any!
If the
rally continues, it will be good for my existing portfolio in terms of paper
value. Similarly I may be prompted to sell more shares.
rally continues, it will be good for my existing portfolio in terms of paper
value. Similarly I may be prompted to sell more shares.
Alternatively,
I can also spend more time focusing on work, which I expect to be very hectic
going forward. That is if I still stay employable!
I can also spend more time focusing on work, which I expect to be very hectic
going forward. That is if I still stay employable!
Most
important of all is to spend more time with my kids and wife which I has been
guilty of spending so little time with lately.
important of all is to spend more time with my kids and wife which I has been
guilty of spending so little time with lately.
How about
you? What are you doing in the stock market right now?
you? What are you doing in the stock market right now?
Hi Rolf, in my experience the cash flow from salary is the one keeping us from frequent meddling of our investment portfolio. When we're not depending on the investment, indirectly we're giving it time to grow.
Everything will be beautiful in it's time.
Hi Yaruzi,
I totally agree with you. Frequent meddling of our investment portfolio is never going to do us good because frankly it's not easy to have tactical allocation for retail investor and yet beat those of professional investors. So to me, the best way is to create a balance and well diversified portfolio and let it grow over long term.
However, I split my portfolio into core portfolio which I don't meddle with and let it grow and also cater few portion of it for trading to have some fun in the up and down. But for those in trading I am prudent and will take profit earlier even when it is going to be marginally lower.
Any performance bonus this year from work?
Hi EH,
Yes for last year, thanks to my superior who resigned. And probably because he fight too hard that the top were not happy, because business in Oil and Gas is errr bad..n need no explanation!
Many people are already on pay cut or struggling to keep their jobs.
How about yourself?
Thankfully yes. This year must 'pia' even harder!
Happy piaing!
Rolf,
Bulls and Bears both make money 😉
You buy the dip; sell the rip.
I sell the rip; buy the dip.
LOL!
Hi Jared,
Totally agree.
The issue is most retail investors are systematic buyers who only go long adopting the "value investing" style.
Yes, if u have the flexibility to go both ways, that is when there is no such thing as a "bad market!"
Unfortunately to go both ways, perhaps u require more guts, more deeper pocket, and also more time n skills in the market than part time retailers!
I belong to the part time retailer 🙁 and u r the former who can go either long or short!
Like you, I have some stocks that I keep long term because they give me good dividends. I have 70% cash at the moment. If the market drops, I will acquire more stocks. I am into dividend investing in both SG and overseas stocks.
Renewed investor
Hi Renewed investor,
Thanks for visiting. It seems like a good strategy and I hope that you are successful.
But at some point 70% cash can be very high, subject to individual situation. For me, I have quite high expenses and because of the depressed O&G industry I am working in, I try to keep more cash. Bear in mind that Cash can be bonds as well.
Diversified portfolio is good and most importantly, we must be very prudent in the current environment and not make risky bets!
Hi Rolf, I am building up my war chest as market rally. Meanwhile waiting for the next opportunity. OUE H Trust is issuing rights, I may subscribe to it.
Hi Sweet Retirement,
Sounds like a sensible strategy to build up a warchest as market rally. I am not familiar with OUE HT. Hmm… Hospitality sector Reit/Trust seems like suffering a bit more relative to the rest of the Reit sectors, Issit?
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