August 2, 2021

8 thoughts on “Low oil price – Bubbles of Tankers, Liftboats and LNG carriers?

  1. my uneducated guess is the tankers bubble unlikely to burst and it is inconsequential at best. real money was mostly from upstream capex and currently midstream pipelies and downstream distribution.

    with that in mind, I watch LNG with interest. the market is smaller and SG wanted to be a bigger part of its pricing (currently very fragmented).

    see http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-25/sgx-seeks-to-break-lng-s-price-link-to-oil-with-singapore-sling

    http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-geopolitics-of-a-world-awash-in-oil

    http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/government-committed-to-develop-singapore-as-lng-trading-hub-teo-eng

    I only wonder if it is more politically/survival motivated – https://www.ema.gov.sg/Piped_Natural_Gas_and_Liquefied_Natural_Gas.aspx

    1. Hi SMK,
      Thanks for info links as usual. Very helpful.
      Do not get me wrong, I am positive about LNG. In fact a little less than two years ago, I had already written an article on LNG positive outlook and had been following this segment closely as well.
      https://rolfsuey.com/2014/07/why-singaporeans-should-know-more-about.html?m=1
      My biggest message here is perhaps just to highlight that the doom in one sector which can lead to the boom in another sector, can be exposed to the risk of overheating/oversupply which eventually crash. This we have probably seen many times before.

  2. Hi Rolf Suey,

    Thanks for your blog, have been very insightful to the O&G market. Would like to hear of your opinion on Ezion's recent rights issue.

    1. How is a windfarm liftboat different from the ordinary liftboat? I am struggling to understand why would so much capital be required to refurbish Ezion's liftboats to cater to windfarms. Aren't they all simply a platform on the sea with cranes and lodging facilities?

    2. How would you see Ausgroup's situation impacting Ezion? And if the situation is considered to be "dire"?

    3. And lastly i guess, Ezion as an investment opportunity now.

    Many many thanks!

    1. Hi YC,

      Thanks for dropping by.

      Yes I heard about Ezion right issues, but I have not dig too deep into it. Therefore not so good for me to give too much advice on it.

      Right issues now is definitely not a good sign and it probably shows the weakness of the company in a very tough O&G environment now. I suspect more O&G companies will be issuing rights soon as well.

      I m not a big expert on Windfarm.

      But basically a Liftboat means a boat that can be lifted by Jack up / down and is self-propelled. Whether it's for Windfarm or for normal maintenance of platform the main functions of jack up/dn & self-propelled is still there.

      The difference will have to be the kind of operation and where the Liftboat is operating.

      There it depends on harsher/calmer environment or shallow/deeper waters. Also depends on how big the wind turbine the vessel handles, the crane and deck space have to be sized accordingly. The Jack up legs load/speed and propulsion all varies. The tools needed for Windfarm installation and typical maintenance of platform is also different. Windfarm in further offshore is definitely harsher and likely specs is higher like bigger deck space and larger crane capacity, but not necessary means more number of cranes!

      You can check out my earlier article on liftboat

      https://rolfsuey.com/2014/06/liftboats-lifting-expectations-ezion.html?m=1

      I am not going to advise if it is an investment opportunity for Ezion or Ausgroup because oil and gas is cyclical and unpredictable and Ezion does have a significant high debt to take notice of too.

      Just need to be more prudent during the current environment!

      🙂

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