August 4, 2021

13 thoughts on “My Major Stock Portfolio Selloffs in 2015 – I use more “Gut” than “Logic”!

    1. Hi Jared,

      For those who is a faithful religious believer, he will say this is God's Blessing for the belief in him!

      For a non-believer, maybe… "Heng Ah…."

      I also have a method. If roads ahead that I am really-really-really unsure, I prefer to be more paranoid n adopting the strategy of "prudent man prepares!" rather than to allow optimism fill the air resulting in complacency.


  1. I slowly, slowly, and slowly claw back cash from the stock market. It took me about 7 years to take back 100% of my capital plus some profit off the table as war chest. No gut feeling. LOL!

    1. Hi CW,

      That was the past! Now not only ur gut, ur stomach, ur whole body all have double the sensors!

      Wisdom in life prevail over hardwork and effort?

      Even if u do not have, just find a close n trusted elder u truly respect n learn from him. I am lucky to find one, maybe?

    1. Hi Yeh,

      U r left with ur family, ur loving house, ur love in cooking (?) and many other more beautiful things in life than the war chest, which should be the least priority for u now! And of course at least better health now.


  2. Thank you, Rolf, your post is great food for thought.

    Gut feeling or intuition is just another heuristic of our brain honed—over millions of years—to ease the cognitive load of making a decision. It might be good at judging people. But it is not always good in domains where we have not gathered ample experience yet. For me that is investing.

    I use my intuition or second brain to tell my thinking brain where to look next and then I have to employ good thinking to come to a rational decision (so I hope) lol

    1. Hi Andy,

      This post is inspired from ur earlier post on "our second brain."

      I have to agree that most times, gut feeling can only be as good as the experiences accumulated over the thousands of hours spent! I prefer to use no. of hours spent in honing a skill rather than just number of years experience. 🙂

      It's good to hear that ur second-wife is always talking to ur first-wife… oh oh no no no… I mean second brain.. LOL

    2. Ha, you got me there for a moment. My heart dropped when I thought to myself, how does Rolf know about my second wife? Just kidding. My second wife is the same as my first wife.

      Well, for investing I still count experience in years. Merely spending hours studying the stock markets is not enough. One has at least to experience some full bull-to-bear-cycle as well as a low-to-high-and-back-interest–rates. Wouldn't you agree?

      Thank you, Rolf, you are the first person I managed to inspire with a post, sigh. 😉

    3. Hi Andy,

      haha… ooops dun divulge ur secret openly!

      Hmm.. I refering to experiences in general. For eg, F1 driver vs 40 yrs driving taxi?

      For stock market, it should be both hours and years as I agree with u. Hours of reading and years to go thru the cycles!

      Hey, I read, remember and inspire! 🙂

    4. Hi Andy,

      Thanks. It's a great article and makes lots of sense. I agree to this perspective. Sports n investing are two different thing completely.

      To add, mind/behaviorial management or even life experiences do play important part in investing also.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

%d bloggers like this: