Is oil price really sustainable below $30? (Part 1)

Sustainable
at $30? 
In case
you are unaware, there aren’t many countries extracting oil for under $30 per
barrel. Looking at
the chart below, only Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq will continue to produce if
oil is $30.
We
wouldn’t have much crude oil if only these countries produced oil.


Most oil
companies will probably then produce KFC instead of oil. Haha?
How about
alternative energy? 
Yes, it is
a threat, but it will take time. The world today is definitely nowhere
near a point where we can continue to function without adequate supply of
oil, coal and natural gas.
Demand
& Supply 
Price is a
function of demand and supply dynamics – simple as that! Yes, Iran
sanctions have been lifted and more supply is going to flood the market. This
is definitely one of the main reasons causing the steep descent of oil
price. As for demand, seriously aside from China slowing economy which
will result in less demand globally, demand in USA is still relatively strong.
India is also seeing significant growth of oil demand. Overall, demand
fundamentals are still stable. 
The
depressed price has already led to the decline of capital expenditure from oil
companies. For offshore oil, it takes years from FEED (front end engineering
design) to exploration, to actual production. Unless shale oil can replace offshore
oil in a short period of time or we discover other more efficient methods of
extracting oil soon, we are going to see serious shortage of oil in the next
few years! 
When will
oil price stabilise? 
Nobody
knows. It is almost impossible to predict the price of oil forward in the
short term. Refer to my previous article “Which directions will oil price head? What
should I do now
?” written last August.  Yes, you can be so analytical that you may
get the demand and supply figures fairly accurate, but can you predict the
sentiments of people? 


Compared
1986 to 2015 – Lower for longer?
Many compared the oil peak-to-trough situation today to what
happened in 30 years ago.  Then, in Sep
1986, OPEC was worry by the discovery of oil in the North Sea, and increased
production and lowered the price to preserve market share. This time it was
Shale oil in USA. The oil decline in 2014-2016 is
proven to be longer in duration as well as larger in scale compared to what
happened 30 years ago in 1986-1987.
The negatives
Persist low oil price will result in lower capital expenditure
(CAPEX) in the energy sector. Therefore there will be a decline in non-residential
structures investment in the energy and mining segment. This means lesser construction
of oil-rigs and related offshore construction and support vessels as well as
mining related activities.
Oil export-led countries will also see a huge decline in
their revenues which result in budget deficit.
According to an article by CNN:
Venezuela who has the world’s largest oil reserves, depended hugely
on revenue generated from oil to pay for pensions, health care, social benefits
and even to subsidize housing and grocery stores. But now, the economy is on
the brink of collapse. Inflation soared over 150% in 2015 and is expected to
rise over 200% next year. The government is unable to pay its bills, and food
and basic supplies are in short supply.
Saudi Arabia has oil accounting for 75% of the country’s
revenue. It ran a nearly $100 billion budget deficit in 2015 and announced
tough austerity measures for next year. “That’s a reminder that even the
world’s lowest-cost oil producer relies on high(er) prices to balance its
budget and current prices don’t come anywhere close,” Kit Juckes, global
strategist at Societe Generale, said.
Nigeria, Africa’s biggest oil producer has oil accounting for
roughly 75% of its revenue, and almost 90% of the country’s exports. The plunge
in oil prices has left the government unable to pay its bills. Local media
reported that in some regions, state employees haven’t received salaries in
months. The country is suffering from power cuts and fuel shortages.
Russia has almost half of Russia’s government revenue
coming from oil and gas exports. Russia’s budget is based on an oil price of
$50 per barrel. With oil trading so low now and the country who already
suffered from the Western economic sanctions, IMF expects Russian GDP will
shrink by ~4.5% in 2016.
Malaysia has until 2014, about a third of government revenues
came from Petronas. Its budget this year was also based on assumed oil price of
US$48. Each US$1 drop in oil prices slashes RM300 million from its annual
revenue.
The current oil volatility will definitely create lots of
uncertainty in the economic outlook going into the course of future. This is going to affect many decisions of policy makers including Fed decision to raise rates. With
oil price at all-time low in the last decade or so, many governments are likely
to revise the numbers of their economic assumptions for the
2016 state budget.
A list of energy-related
companies in Singapore such as Keppel O&M, Semb Marine, Ezion, Ezra,
Swiber, Nam Cheong, Pacific Radiance, POSH, Marco Polo, Swissco, MTQ, have all
seen their stock prices battered down.
The positives
On the flip side, lower oil price will result in a steady
source of cost savings for many businesses who are largely dependent on fuel
and electricity.
The low oil price will greatly benefit transportation companies who can consume lower
priced fuel. Airlines and transportation companies may see this as a good time
to upgrade or grow their fleets. Companies such as Singapore
Airlines Ltd
and Comfort Delgro will
see reduced fuel costs to their benefits. For SIA, fuel costs contributed to
37% of overall expenses in FY2015. Other companies who sell trucks or involve
in delivery such as FedEx, UPS etc will be beneficiaries as well.
Spending on services such as having meals away from home and
domestic travel can increase as well. In some way, companies in the travel, consumer/retail and F&B segments can
possibly benefit from the current low oil price environment.
Investment in manufacturing structures will potentially see a
huge increase over time. For countries who took a long term view, this may be
one of the best opportunities to invest in infrastructure and connectivity as
well.
Other than countries who are net importer of oil, major producers of
refined fuels in Asia include South Korea, Singapore, Japan and Taiwan that
rely on crude oil imports to supply the sector will stand to benefit as well.

Stay tuned to part 2 for Rolf’s views and the Dos and Don’ts in this crisis. 

Related Posts

73 thoughts on “Is oil price really sustainable below $30? (Part 1)

  1. Hey Rolf, just wanted to say I really enjoy your articles on oil/energy. Even if not for investment related activities, still fantastic general knowledge to have – pls keep writing!

    1. Hi Kevin,

      Thanks a lot. Your kind words add more "oil though quite cheap now" but necessary to drive my writing engine! Your well worded-blog inspired me as well.

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  2. Ah ber then?

    If not how to get recruited to write for Trade magazine?

    Writing to peers is not the same as writing to general public 😉

    1. Hi Kevin,

      Thanks a lot. Your kind words add more "oil though quite cheap now" but necessary to drive my writing engine! Your well worded-blog inspired me as well.

      Hey Jared,

      The recruitment is for some small unimportant online portal not big trade magazines. It boils down to few factors – Coincidence, luck and "guan xi".

      Writing professionally and blogging or writing to peer is totally different. I can easily spend 10-12 hours or more researching/writing/re-checking an article between 1000 – 1500 words, prior to submission.

      It's very tiring! Money is never easy to earn, considering the fact that many naive investors thinking how easy it is to earn from stock markets!

      Maybe trading easier?

    2. Rolf,

      LOL! I old school lah. I still consider newspapers and magazines as "mass media", but to the young, they all roll-eyes at me.

      OK lor, on-line magazine 😉

      I think the days of print media are numbered. Penthouse print version ended; now that's a good indicator of the future!

      Of course trading easier!

      Press a few buttons and in a few minutes, we'll get immediate feedback.

      Either lose a few Ks 🙁

      Or make a few Ks 🙂

      Easy!

      (Easy your head!)

    3. Hi Jared,

      LOL! Old school.. yes I noe, black T, light colored jeans n new balance shoes!

      Yea agree with u that print is vanishing. No more Kodak, no more films developed photos! I only have playboy print version not penthouse… hahaha

      Trading is easy… Easy to loose money!

      U want to get multi-bagger? Just drop an email to [email protected]. LOL. :p

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    5. HOW I GOT MY LOAN FROM ELVIN LOAN COMPANY{[email protected]}

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    7. FINANCIAL BREAKTHROUGH

      Life indeed is GRACE, I'am Daan Sophia currently in California USA. I would like to share my experience with you guys on how I got a loan of $185,000.00 USD to clear my bank draft and start up a new business. It all started when i lost my home and belongings due to the bank draft I took to offset some bills and some personal needs. I became so desperate and began to seek for funds at all means. Luckily for me I heard a colleague of mine talking about this company, I got interested although i was scared of being scammed, I was compelled by my situation and had no choice than to seek advise from my friend regarding this very company and was given their contact number, getting intouch with them really made me skeptical due to my past experience with online lenders, little did i know this very Company "PROGRESSIVE LOAN INC. was a godsent to me and my family and the entire Internet World, this company has been of great help to me and some of my colleague and today am a proud owner of well organized business and responsibilities are well handled all thanks to Josef Lewis of ([email protected]).. So if really you are genuinely in need of a loan either to expand or start up your own business or in any form of financial difficulty, i advise you give Mr Josef Lewis of Progressive loan the opportunity of financial upliftment in your life Email: [email protected] OR Call/Text +1(603) 786-7565 and not fall victim of online scam in the name of getting a loan. thanks

    1. Hi Joyce,

      Thanks for the comments and for dropping by.

      I could not have claim credit for the KFC comparison because it was courteousy from a good friend of mine! Like u, I find it very nice and feels like sharing here.

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    2. How I Was Rescued By A God Fearing Lender ([email protected])

      Hello, I am Andrew Thompson currently living in CT USA, God has bless me with two kids and a lovely Wife, I promise to share this Testimony because of God favor in my life, 2days ago I was in desperate need of money so I thought of having a loan then I ran into wrong hands who claimed to be loan lender not knowing he was a scam. he collected 1,500.00 USD from me and refuse to email me since then I was confuse, but God came to my rescue, one faithful day I went to church after the service I share idea with a friend and she introduce me to LEXIE LOAN COMPANY, she said she was given 98,000.00 USD by MR LEXIE , THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF LEXIE LOAN COMPANY. So I collected his email Address , he told me the rules and regulation and I followed, then after processing of the Documents, he gave me my loan of 55,000.00 USD… So if you are interested in a loan you can as well contact him on this Email: [email protected] or text +1(406) 946-0675 thanks, I am sure he will also help you.

  3. How I Got My Loan From A Genuine And Reliable Loan Company ([email protected])!!!

    My Name is Nicole Marie, I live in USA and life is worth living comfortably for me and my family now and i really have never seen goodness shown to me this much in my life, As i am a struggling mum with two kids and i have been going through a serious problem as my husband encountered a terrible accident last two weeks, and the doctors states that he needs to undergo a delicate surgery for him to be able to walk again and i could not afford the bill for his surgery then i went to the bank for a loan and they turn me down stating that i have no credit card, from there i ran to my father and he was not able to help me, then when i was browsing through yahoo answers and i came across a God fearing man (Mr Martinez Lexie) who provides loans at an affordable interest rate and i have been hearing about so many scams on the Internet mostly Africa, but at this my desperate situation, i had no choice than to give it an attempt due to the fact that the company is from United State of America, and surprisingly it was all like a dream, i received a loan of $82,000.00 USD and i payed for my husband surgery and thank GOD today he is ok and can walk, my family is happy and i said to myself that i will shout to the world the wonders this great and God fearing Man Mr Martinez Lexie did for me and my family; so if anyone is in genuine and serious need of a loan do contact this GOD fearing man via Email: [email protected] or ( [email protected] ) or immediately reach him through text Tel: +1 (406) 946-0675 thanks

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  5. HOW I GOT MY LOAN FROM ELVIN LOAN COMPANY{[email protected]}

    I am Carolyn V. Metnick,from Ohio USA, i want to use this great medium to announce this lender Elvin Morrison who is really a God sent to my family. few months back i was in search of a loan from the internet where i was scammed of $3250.00, i never thought i will ever apply for a loan on the internet again before i met a post about this lender made by one Maury who also got a loan from them, then i took a try again, after loan processing i was ask to provide my banking details which i did and to my greatest surprise i was granted a loan of $45,000.00 at first i thought it was a joke until i got to the bank to confirm and it was true, i was overwhelmed with joy. so i want you all who desire a loan and are capable of paying back the funds at the due time to contact: [email protected] or on page http://elvinloancompanys.bravesites.com or Tel:+1(307)213-2540 and be a partaker of my testimony ….

  6. HOW I GOT MY LOAN FROM THIS GREAT COMPANY

    Hello my dear people , I am Anita Frank, currently living in New jersey city, USA. I am a widow at the moment with three kids and i was stuck in a financial situation in April 2015 and i needed to refinance and pay my bills. I tried seeking loans from various loan firms both private and corporate but never with success, and most banks declined my credit ,do not full prey to those hoodlums at there that call them self money lender they are all scam , all they want is your money and you well not hear from them again they have done it to me twice before I met Mr. Wilson Edwards the most interesting part of it is that my loan was transfer to me within 74hours so I will advice you to contact Mr. Edwards if you are interested in getting loan and you are sure you can pay him back on time you can contact him via email……… ([email protected]) No credit check, no co signer with just 2% interest rate and better repayment plans and schedule if you must contact any firm with reference to securing a loan without collateral then contact Mr. Wilson Edwards today for your loan
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    1. QUICK AND AFFORDABLE LOAN BY JONES LOAN FINANCE

      I am Edward Jones Jr. Do you need an urgent loan to support your business or in any purpose? we are certified and legitimate and international licensed loan Company. We offer loans to Business firms, companies and individuals at an affordable interest rate of 2% , It might be a short or long term loan or even if you have poor credit, we shall process your loan as soon as we receive your application. we are an independent financial institution. We have built up an excellent reputation over the years in providing various types of loans to thousands of our customers. We Offer guaranteed loan services of any amount to people all over the globe, we offer easy Personal loans,Commercial/business loan,Car loan Leasing/equipment finance, Debt consolidation loan, Home loan, ETC with either a good or bad credit history. If you are in need of a loan do contact us via email ([email protected]) OR Text us (424) 281-7747

    2. Testimony On How My Life was Transformed ([email protected])..

      I am writing this Testimony because am really grateful for what Martinez Lexie did for me and my family, when I thought there was no hope he came and make my family feel alive again by lending us loan at a very low interest rate of 2%. Well I have been searching for a loan to settle my debts for the past three months all I met scammed and took my money total 6,500usd until I finally met a God sent Lender. I never thought that there are still genuine loan lenders on the internet but to my greatest surprise i got my loan without wasting much time so if you are out there looking for a loan of any kind for business or other purposes i would advise you to email Mr Martinez via: ( [email protected] ) or through the Company website: http://lexieloans.bravesites.com OR text: +18168926958 and be free of internet scams. thanks… Jenny Hills CA, United State

  7. My name is Andy James currently living in Zurich Switzerland,Am writing this letter because am really grateful for what Elvin Morrison did for me and my family when I thought there was no hope he came and make a way for me and my family by lending us loan at a very low interest rate of 2%. I never thought that there are still God sent and genuine loan lenders on the web but to my greatest surprise i got my loan without wasting much time so if you are out there looking for a loan of any amount i would like to recommend you to Elvin Morrison the Managing director of Elvin Loan Company because he is a God sent man that can change your life forever, So if you really want to make a better life without any fund scarcity I would advise you to get in touch with him through this e-mail below [email protected] or call on +13072132540.

  8. How I Was Rescued By A God Fearing Lender ([email protected])

    Hello, I am Andrew Thompson currently living in CT USA, God has bless me with two kids and a lovely Wife, I promise to share this Testimony because of God favor in my life, 2days ago I was in desperate need of money so I thought of having a loan then I ran into wrong hands who claimed to be loan lender not knowing he was a scam. he collected 1,500.00 USD from me and refuse to email me since then I was confuse, but God came to my rescue, one faithful day I went to church after the service I share idea with a friend and she introduce me to LEXIE LOAN COMPANY, she said she was given 98,000.00 USD by MR LEXIE , THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF LEXIE LOAN COMPANY. So I collected his email Address , he told me the rules and regulation and I followed, then after processing of the Documents, he gave me my loan of 55,000.00 USD… So if you are interested in a loan you can as well contact him on this Email: [email protected] or text +1(406) 946-0675 thanks, I am sure he will also help you.

  9. Hello, I am Desmond Cloud currently living in CT USA, God has bless me with two kids and a lovely Wife, I promise to share this Testimony because of God favor in my life, 2days ago I was in desperate need of money so I thought of having a loan then I ran into wrong hands who claimed to be loan lender not knowing he was a scam. he collected 1,500.00 USD from me and refuse to email me since then I was confuse, but God came to my rescue, one faithful day I went to church after the service I share idea with a friend and she introduce me to JEFFERY SMITH LOAN COMPANY, she said she was given 98,000.00 USD by MR JEFFERY SMITH , THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF JEFFERY SMITH LOAN COMPANY. So I collected his email Address , he told me the rules and regulation and I followed, then after processing of the Documents, he gave me my loan of 55,000.00 USD… So if you are interested in a loan you can as well contact him on this Email: ([email protected]) thanks, I am sure he will also help you.

  10. HOW I GOT MY LOAN FROM ELVIN LOAN COMPANY{[email protected]}

    I am Carolyn V. Metnick,from Ohio USA, i want to use this great medium to announce this lender Elvin Morrison who is really a God sent to my family. few months back i was in search of a loan from the internet where i was scammed of $3250.00, i never thought i will ever apply for a loan on the internet again before i met a post about this lender made by one Maury who also got a loan from them, then i took a try again, after loan processing i was ask to provide my banking details which i did and to my greatest surprise i was granted a loan of $45,000.00 at first i thought it was a joke until i got to the bank to confirm and it was true, i was overwhelmed with joy. so i want you all who desire a loan and are capable of paying back the funds at the due time to contact: [email protected] or on page http://elvinloancompanys.bravesites.com or Tel:+13072132540 and be a partaker of
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  11. We The Islamic Family of Abdallah, Abdel Wassim We grant loans to businesses and individuals at a low interest rate and affordable Interest rate of 3%. Contact us by email: [email protected]

  12. How i got my Desired Loan Amount from a Reliable Loan Company ([email protected])

    Hello everyone, My name is julien garcia, I am from texas, United State, am here to testify of how i got my loan from Mr sammy Loan Company{ ([email protected]) } after i applied Two times from various loan lenders who claimed to be lenders right here this forum, i thought their lending was real and i applied but they never gave me loan until a friend of mine introduce me to Mr sammy johnson Loan Company, who promised to help me with a loan of my desire and he really did as he promised without any form of delay, I had doubts but i never seize to believe. I never thought there are still reliable loan lenders until i met Mr sammy johnson, who really helped me with my loan and changed my life for the better. I know there are still many good lenders out there but i would advise you to try Mr sammy Loan Company, his caring and understanding. don't know if you are in need of an urgent loan also or want funding for your projects, So feel free to contact Mr sammyLoan Company his email address is[[email protected]] or call him on [+447.031.965.511]

  13. Are you a businessman / woman? Are you in any financial mess or you need
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  15. I want to thank Julia Navaro for the loan given to me by her loan company NAVARO LOAN COMPANY. Needed a loan to start a my boutique and didn't know how to get a loan until I was introduce to NAVARO LOAN COMPANY by a friend online and she approved my loan of $300,000 with minimum income of $10 and now am a successful woman. If you need any type of loan from any country and of any amount at an interest rate of 2% contact Julia Navaro at
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  16. To Whom it may concern!!!

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  17. Testimony On How My Life was Transformed ([email protected])..

    I am writing this Testimony because am really grateful for what Martinez Lexie did for me and my family, when I thought there was no hope he came and make my family feel alive again by lending us loan at a very low interest rate of 2%. Well I have been searching for a loan to settle my debts for the past three months all I met scammed and took my money total 6,500usd until I finally met a God sent Lender. I never thought that there are still genuine loan lenders on the internet but to my greatest surprise i got my loan without wasting much time so if you are out there looking for a loan of any kind for business or other purposes i would advise you to email Mr Martinez via: ( [email protected] ) or through the Company website: http://lexieloans.bravesites.com OR text: +18168926958 and be free of internet scams. thanks… Jenny Hills CA, United State

  18. EDWARD JONES FINANCE IS THE BEST PLACE TO GET A LOAN {[email protected]},
    God bless you sir, I will not stop telling the world about your kindness in my life, I am a single mum with kids to look after. My name is Emily Thomas, and I am from Convention Center Drive, Miami Beach, FL . A couple of weeks ago My friend visited me and along our discussion she told me about EDWARD JONES FINANCE, that they can help me out of my financial situation, I never believed cause I have spend so much money on different loan lenders who did nothing other than running away with my money. I have been in a financial mess for the pass 7 months now,She advised I give it a try so I mailed him and explain all about my financial situation to him, he therefore took me through the loan process and gave me a loan of $390,000.00 at a very low intrest rate of 2% and today I am a proud business owner and can now take good care of my kids If you must contact any firm to get any amount of loan you need with a low interest rate of 2% and better repayment schedule, please contact EDWARD JONES FINANCE email:- {[email protected]} OR Text +1(307) 241-3712 or go to there page on http://jonesloanfinance.bravesites.com

  19. EDWARD JONES FINANCE IS THE BEST PLACE TO GET A LOAN {[email protected]},
    God bless you sir, I will not stop telling the world about your kindness in my life, I am a single mum with kids to look after. My name is Emily Thomas, and I am from Convention Center Drive, Miami Beach, FL . A couple of weeks ago My friend visited me and along our discussion she told me about EDWARD JONES FINANCE, that they can help me out of my financial situation, I never believed cause I have spend so much money on different loan lenders who did nothing other than running away with my money. I have been in a financial mess for the pass 7 months now,She advised I give it a try so I mailed him and explain all about my financial situation to him, he therefore took me through the loan process and gave me a loan of $390,000.00 at a very low intrest rate of 2% and today I am a proud business owner and can now take good care of my kids If you must contact any firm to get any amount of loan you need with a low interest rate of 2% and better repayment schedule, please contact EDWARD JONES FINANCE email:- {[email protected]} OR Text +1(307) 241-3712 or go to there page on http://jonesloanfinance.bravesites.com

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  22. Attention,rnThis is an online advertisement from a registered Government approved and Licensed lender that gives out loans of various kinds,e.g, Mortgage loan, Business loan, Car Loans to only serious and interested parties against a very low affordable interest rate of 3%. Apply for your loan now. If you are interested contact Via: [email protected] Thanks,Mr Yin

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  26. HOW EDWARD LOAN COMPANY GRANTED ME A BUSINESS LOAN!!!
    Hello everyone, I am Oliver Johnson Moore from Zurich Switzerland and want to use this medium to express gratitude to EDWARD JONES for fulfilling his promise by granting me a loan, i was stuck in a financial situation and needed to refinance and pay my bills as well as start up a Business. I tried seeking for loans from various loan firms both private and corporate organisations but never succeeded and most banks declined my credit request. But as God would have it, i was introduced by a friend named Lisa Rice to EDWARD JONES LOAN COMPANY and undergone the due process of obtaining a loan from the company, to my greatest surprise within 28hrs just like my friend Lisa, i was also granted a loan of $387,000.00; So my advise to everyone who desires a loan, "if you must contact any firm with reference to securing a loan online with low interest rate of 2% and better repayment plans/schedule, please contact EDWARD JONES LOAN COMPANY. Besides, he doesn't know that am doing this but due to the joy in me, i'm so happy and wish to let people know more about this great company whom truly give out loans, it is my prayer that GOD should bless them more as they put smiles on peoples faces. You can contact them via email on {[email protected]} or Text +1(307) 241-3712

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  29. Hello Everyone, i am DAVID HILL MILLA now living in FLORIDA. I am SINGLE DAD, at the moment, two children and I was struck on the financial situation and need to refinance and pay for my son's medical bills and school fees. I tried looking for different loan lending companies and private corporation but never got a loan from them, and most banks reduced their credit. But as God would have it, I was introduced to the private loan lender JULIA NAVARO CEO NAVARO LOAN COMPANY and I got the loan amount ($553,760 USD), and today I am a business owner, and the kids are doing well at the moment. So, my dear friends, if you need to contact referring to all the companies that provide the loan at low interest rate of 2% and better repayment plans and schedules, please contact (JULIA NAVARO) at [email protected]. I'm so happy now, and I decided to let people know more about it, she offers all kinds of loans to individuals and company, and I want God to bless her. You can contact the company via e-mail ([email protected])….

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  41. Dear Sir,

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  42. Dear Sir,

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